The active, unsettled weather pattern we have been talking about for the past several days is beginning to setup. The upper-level storm system is currently moving into the Southwest, and will slowly push east through Thursday, bringing an associated front with it at the surface.
There will be several rounds of strong to potentially severe storms. Widespread heavy rain is also likely from East Texas through North Alabama, and flash flooding will be a concern.
Tomorrow
Strong storms will develop ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon as it progress south, and could congeal into a squall line; some could be severe.
Localized damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary threats.
Wednesday
Storms (possibly in the form of a squall line) will shift into South Texas tomorrow night/early Wednesday, and into Louisiana and West Mississippi Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night (see figure 1).
Damaging straight-line winds, hail, and isolated tornado or two look to be the main threats as of now.
Thursday
The front will move into Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, Southwest Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Additional storms are likely, and could be strong/severe.
Heavy Rain
Storms tomorrow through Thursday will produce widespread heavy rain. Accumulations of 3 – 5″ are forecast for East Texas, much of Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and North/Central Alabama through Thursday.
Flash flooding will be possible — mainly across Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and Northwest Alabama, where the highest rainfall totals are forecast.
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