Multiple Rounds of Strong to Severe Storms Likely Tomorrow Through Thursday;Widespread Heavy Rain Expected

The active, unsettled weather pattern we have been talking about for the past several days is beginning to setup. The upper-level storm system is currently moving into the Southwest, and will slowly push east through Thursday, bringing an associated front with it at the surface.

There will be several rounds of strong to potentially severe storms. Widespread heavy rain is also likely from East Texas through North Alabama, and flash flooding will be a concern.

 

Tomorrow

Strong storms will develop ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon as it progress south, and could congeal into a squall line; some could be severe.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

Localized damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary threats.

Wednesday

Storms (possibly in the form of a squall line) will shift into South Texas tomorrow night/early Wednesday, and into Louisiana and West Mississippi Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night (see figure 1).

Damaging straight-line winds, hail, and isolated tornado or two look to be the main threats as of now.


Thursday

The front will move into Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, Southwest Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Figure 3. NAM simulated radar valid at 1:00 PM Thursday.

Additional storms are likely, and could be strong/severe.

Heavy Rain

Storms tomorrow through Thursday will produce widespread heavy rain. Accumulations of 3 – 5″  are forecast for East Texas, much of Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and North/Central Alabama through Thursday.

Figure 4. Latest QPF outlook from the Weather Prediction Center.

Flash flooding will be possible — mainly across Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and Northwest Alabama, where the highest rainfall totals are forecast.

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For an official, accurate weather forecast specific to your local area go to weather.gov and enter your zip code. 

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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