Threat for Severe Weather, Flash Flooding for South TX, LA, MS Today and Tonight

A squall line is advancing across East and portions of South Texas (mainly north of and along I-10) this morning. It will push east through the day today, and push through North and Central Louisiana late this afternoon, and West-Central Mississippi during the evening hours.

This evening/tonight, more thunderstorms will initiate across the Texas Coastal Plains t and form a second squall line.

Thw second squall will traverse Louisiana and Mississippi overnight and early tomorrow morning, and South and Central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle during the second half of the day tomorrow (though it should be weakens some by this time).

Severe Threat

Storms will be strong; some could become severe.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today and tonight.

Today – Tonight: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has a “slight risk” outlined for South and East Texas, West and North Louisiana, and a portions of West-Central Mississippi.

Threats: Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.


Tomorrow: Tomorrow, a “slight risk” area is still defined from Southeast Louisiana into Central Alabama.

Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

Threats: Damaging wind gusts and brief, isolated tornadoes.

Flash Flood Threat

Storms through tomorrow will produce heavy rain. Accumulations of 2 – 5″  are forecast from East Texas into Northwest Alabama, with accumulations up to 6″  or more possible locally.

Figure 4. Latest 7-day QPF outlook (most all accumulation will occur between now ad tomorrow).

Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for East Texas and much of West and North Louisiana.

The greatest risk for Flash Flooding is now from Southeast Texas, Just north of Beaumont, into North-Central Mississippi (see figure 1).

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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