Severe weather is looking more probable for East and South Texas, Louisiana, and West Mississippi Friday, and the the remainder of Mississippi, all of Alabama, and Florida Panhandle Saturday.
A trough is going to dig into the Western U.S. Friday and spawn a rather strong area of low pressure in the Plains; a cold front will extend south from it into Texas. Deep, tropical moisture will get advected north resulting in storms along/ahead of the front.
Isolated storms (supercells) are expected to initiate across East and South Texas Friday afternoon/evening along a dry line, and congeal into a large (and potentially strong) squall line (QLS) overnight Friday and work east across Louisiana and into West Mississippi.
During the day Saturday and into Saturday night/early Sunday, the front will slowly advance eastward, bringing the QLS through the rest of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined an “enhanced” risk area for Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana for Friday.
A 15% (“slight”) risk area has also been defined for Southeast Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and all of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Friday.
All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds, and hail) could be possible.
Heavy rain is also looking likely. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 – 4″, with locally higher totals possible.
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