A severe weather event is going to unfold across East Texas, parts of South Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Louisiana, much of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow and Saturday.
Setup: Tomorrow an area of low pressure will form in the Plains, and track into the Northeast Saturday. A cold front will extend to the south of the low. When the low tracks across the Midwest and into the Northeast, it will move the trailing front east.
Deep, tropical moisture will get drawn north by the front, resulting in storms along/ahead of it.
Timing: Isolated storms (supercells) will develop in East and South Texas tomorrow afternoon/evening along a dry line. Overnight, storms will congeal into a strong squall line (QLCS) over East/Southeast Texas and West Louisiana, and work east.
During the day Saturday and Saturday night, the front will slowly advance eastward, bringing the QLCS through East Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle.
Placement: Severe weather tomorrow will be most likely in the “enhanced” risk area, which encompasses Northeast Texas and North Louisiana.
Saturday, the greatest threat will be across Southeast Louisiana, Southeast Mississippi, South and Central Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, where the Storm Prediction Center has also outlined an “enhanced” risk area (see figure 1).
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible tomorrow into Saturday. However, once storms take on a more linear mode (merge into the squall line), the main hazard will become damaging straight-line winds.
However, embedded tornadoes and some hail will be possible even after the transition to the linear mode.
Heavy rain: The squall line is going to be slow moving, and will produce heavy rain. Totals of 1 – 4″ are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
Some flash flooding will be possible.
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