A severe weather event is still expected to unfold across East and South Texas and West Louisiana overnight, and the remainder of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow.
Tonight: Supercells have fired up across East-Central Texas this evening, mainly along the I-35 corridor along a dry line, and across North Louisiana. Additional storms will develop this evening and overnight; coverage will increase, and eventually (likely between 10:00 PM and 12:00 AM CDT) a squall line (QLCS) will form and push into/across West Louisiana.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana to an “enhanced” risk. A Particularly Dangerous Tornado Watch (PDS) is also in effect until 10:00 PM CDT.
Hazards: All modes of severe weather will be a hazard tonight, with tornadoes likely in the “moderate” risk area, some of which could be intense. Once the storm mode becomes more linear (when the QLCS becomes the dominant feature) the main threat will become damaging winds up to 60 – 70mph.
Tomorrow: The QLCS will traverse East Louisiana and Mississippi during the day tomorrow, and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow night. It now looks like some supercells will develop out ahead of the QLCS.
As of the afternoon update from the SPC, the “enhanced” risk area has been maintained; though, there have been some slight changes.
The SPC has also hatched a significant risk for severe weather from Southeast Louisiana into Northwest Alabama in their probabilistic outlook (see figure 1). It would not be surprising if part of the “enhanced” risk gets upgraded to a “moderate” risk.
Hazards: All modes of severe weather will continue to be possible. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some very strong damaging gusts likely. A greater tornado risk could evolve with supercells that fire out ahead of the QLCS.
Heavy rain: Heavy rain is still expected to be a concern in addition to the severe threat. Overall, amounts will be between 1 – 4″, with locally higher accumulations possible.
Flash flood watches have been issued for East and Southeast Louisiana, all of Mississippi, and parts of Alabama.
NOTE: It is important to be weather aware tonight and tomorrow. Be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings!
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