A tropical disturbance (Invest 91L) currently located in the Western Caribbean is going to track northwest into the Western Gulf of Mexico during the latter half of the week.
Development is unlikely over the next 2 – 3 days due to high wind shear being induced from an upper-level trough and land interaction with Central America. Environmental conditions could become slightly more conducive when this system moves into the Gulf.
However, even with the slight improvement in environmental conditions at the end of the week, the overall odds of a tropical cyclone (TC) forming are low (20% over the next five days according to the latest tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center).
Currently none of the reliable model guidance used for predicting TC genesis is forecasting development of this disturbance.
Impacts will be felt regardless of development, as deep tropical moisture will surge north into the Northwest Gulf Coast this weekend and early next week, resulting in heavy rain. Currently accumulations of 2 – 4″ are forecast for South Texas and Louisiana (see figure 1).
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