There is a low chance for tropical development in the Gulf during the first half of next week.
The ridge that is going to be in place over the Central and Eastern U.S. next week could help spark TC genesis in the Northern Gulf, as it will lower pressures across the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic. This pattern has resulted in TC genesis many times in the past. A recent example is Hurricane Arthur (July 2014).
The ECMWF is picking up on this. For 5 consecutive runs, it has shown a weak and broad area of low pressure (possibly a tropical depression) developing near the Gulf Coast next Monday/Tuesday. The ECMWF ensembles (EPS) have also been supporting the operational, with the latest 00z run at a 65 – 70% chance of at least a tropical depression (TD) developing along the North-Central Gulf Coast in the 2 – 4 day time frame (see figure 1).
Currently, the ECMWF does have some support from the GFS, UKMET, and CMC; all three show an area of low pressure developing near the coast — but they keep it inland.
As of now, we are not anticipating TC genesis in the Gulf next week. However, the chance for genesis, while low, is there.
If something were to develop it would remain weak and get pushed west by the ridge.
Wet, unsettled weather
Very wet, unsettled weather is in store for the Gulf Coast this weekend through next week regardless of development.
Multiple periods of heavy rain are likely. The latest quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) calls for rainfall accumulations of 2 – 5″ along much of the Northern Gulf Coast through Friday of next week (see figure 2).
Images: [ weathermodels.com ]
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