It is now probable that several areas/clusters of thunderstorms — some becoming strong to severe — will form along a frontal boundary across South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and this evening (between 2 – 4 PM CDT) and propagate south. The greatest coverage will be confined mainly to areas along/east of I-65. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding convective development and coverage after differing yesterday.
Storms that develop, after initially being cellular in nature, could organize into a mesoscale convective system (MCS)/linear segment.
Both the “slight” risk area and “marginal” risk area have been maintained by the Storm Prediction Center and remain relatively unchanged (see figure 1).
Damaging, straight-line winds remain the primary threat. An isolated tornado or two and hail can’t be ruled out, though. Frequent lightning and heavy rain will also accompany storms this afternoon and evening.
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