Tropical Update | Subtropical Depression Five Forms; Expected to Become Ernesto

Fiure 1. IR satellite image of Subtropical Depression Five as of 12:00 UTC 8/15/18. Credit: NASA
Fiure 1. IR satellite image of Subtropical Depression Five as of 12:00 UTC 8/15/18. Credit: NASA

Subtropical Depression Five has formed over the North-Central Atlantic Ocean from a non-tropical area of low pressure, in a very similar location as Debby just last weel. Genesis was also very similar to Debby’s genesis.

Track: Subtropical Depression Five is currently tracking north at 5 mph. However, the depression will begin to accelerate tomorrow and turn to the northeast as a trough approaches it.

Figure 2. Track guidance for Subtropical Depression Five. Credit: NCAR

Intensity: Subtropical Depression Five is expected to acquire the name Ernesto later today/tonight. Winds are current 35 mph.  Some intensification will be possible. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system peaking with max winds of 50 mph. Wind shear, dry air, and much colder sea surface temperatures should result in weakening/extratropical transition by Friday.

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Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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