The tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles we discussed in our previous update is located near Hispaniola this evening. Satellite images show that it is producing a large area of disorganized convection, but strong upper level winds are still hindering development.
A west to west-northwest track is still expected, and this weekend the wave will track through the Bahamas and South Florida, and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Unfavorable upper level winds look to prevail this weekend. However, by early next week, when the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico, upper level winds could become more conducive for development. The ECMWF (euro) has and the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) have backed off on development, but still have an area of low pressure developing over the Northern Gulf around Tuesday/Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GFS and the GFS ensembles (GEFS) have trended toward the euro, projecting an area of low pressure to form, but continue to show no tropical development.
Overall, the odds of this wave developing look low as of now. In their 8:00 PM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the chance of development at 10% over the next 5 days.
Regardless of development, this wave is going to bring wet, unsettled weather to the Florida Peninsula this weekend, and the Northern Gulf Coast early next week (see figure 2).
For future updates, follow us on twitter @GCSCWX.
You can also follow us on Facebook and Instagram, or join our official Facebook group.
For an official, accurate weather forecast specific to your local area go to weather.gov and enter your zip code or consult your local National Weather Service.
