After a very active period, the Atlantic Basin will be quiet for at least the next 7 to 10 days, with Florence now a remnant low and Isaac’s remnants unlikely to redevelop. Of course, given the time of year, we can’t rule out something unexpected popping up.
Looking ahead, there is support for another uptick in activity at the end of this month heading into October.
The GFS and ECMWF are forecasting the the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to move back into the Atlantic at the end of the month (see figure 1). This is important because the MJO causes upward motion (rising air), and can aid/result in tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) — especially early and late in the season.
Additionally, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is projecting lowering pressures, increased precipitation, and decreased wind shear in Gulf of Mexico/west Caribbean during the first half of next month.
Considering the above, along with the fact the “second peak” of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is October 10th, it can be reasonably inferred that there will be an uptick in activity at the end of the month going into next month.
It is too early to speculate further. The main takeaway is that hurricane season is far from over, with increased activity possible in the Gulf/Caribbean to close out this month and during the first half of October.
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