The lull discussed in our previous post on the tropics looks to have been rather short-lived. We are now back to monitoring four areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin: Two invests (97lL and 98L), an area of low pressure that could develop about midway between Bermuda and the Azores tomorrow, and a tropical wave still over West Africa.
Invest 97L: Designated yesterday, 97L is located ~ 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving generally west-northwest.
Data from CIMSS shows that 97L has a decent amount of vorticity (“spin”). Satellite imagery also shows there is some fairly persistent and concentrated convective activity. However, there is no evidence of a surface circulation.
Environmental conditions will remain supportive of development through tonight, but shear will markedly increase by tomorrow. None of the reliable models used for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) — the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET — develop 97L.
In their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the odds of 97L developing at 10% both over the next 2 days and 5 days. If 97L does manage to somehow develop, it would dissipate very, very quickly, well before reaching the Lesser Antilles.
Invest 98L: A non-tropical area of low pressure appears to be trying to transition to a tropical or subtropical system. Visible satellite suggests that there is a closed circulation. Although, high shear and dry air are currently hindering its attempt at acquiring tropical/subtropical characteristics.
Over the next few days, 98L will track southeast through today, and then turn to the south and southwest tomorrow and Saturday, at which point environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for a tropical/subtropical cyclone to form.
The ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET all show at least some slight development of 98L, along with many ECMWF ensemble (EPS) members.
The NHC placed the chance of development at 20% in their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook.
Non-tropical low expected to develop between Bermuda and the Azores: A non-tropical area of low pressure is going to develop midway between Bermuda and the Azores tomorrow night.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical/subtropical development, and there is plenty of model support for development. The NHC placed the chance of development at 50% over the next 5 days in the 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook. If we get a tropical cyclone out of this, it likely won’t pose a threat to land.
Tropical wave over Africa: A tropical wave is going to emerge off of the West Coast of Africa sometime tomorrow or Saturday at a fairly low latitude. Some development appears possible, as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will is well to the north of where the wave will emerge. Shear will also be low along its path. A track generally toward the west is likely.
Model guidance is not too enthusiastic with development of this wave. In their 12z runs, the GFS and euro showed some weak development (possibly a tropical depression) around mid to late next week. On the other hand, the 12z UKMET had the wave developing into a moderate to strong tropical storm. There is also some EPS support.
In their 2 PM EDT tropical weather outlook, the NHC gave the wave a 20% chance of developing over the next 5 days.
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