Invest 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Kirk (TS Kirk), skipping tropical depression status all together.
Per the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 14 mph with max sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1005 millibars.
Track: TS Kirk will head generally westward to west-northwestward through the next 5 days along the southern periphery of a ridge. Given the fast forward speed (14 mph), Kirk should near the Lesser Antilles by Thursday/Friday. Beyond the 5 day mark, where Kirk goes is rather uncertain.
The most likely option at this point looks to be a continued west to west-northwest track into the Caribbean. However, if Kirk gets strong than anticipated, it could better feel a weakness in the ridge. This would allow for a more northerly track toward the northeast Caribbean or out to sea. The ECMWF and GFS favor the former, while the UKMET favors the latter.
Intensity: Environmental conditions will remain generally conducive for intensification through at least the next 3 days. Although, some dry air is present just to the north that could interfere with strengthening. At this time, the official National Hurricane Center forecast has Kirk peaking as a 60 mph tropical storm.
By Monday/Tuesday the SHIPS intensity model indicates shear could increase, which should induce some weakening.
Note: It is too early to determine if TS Kirk will pose a threat to the continental United States.
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