Kirk officially degenerated yesterday morning at the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory. This is because an ASCAT pass revealed that there was no closed center. It appears that fast forward speed and dry air were the cause of dissipation.
While no longer a tropical cyclone (TC), Kirk’s remnants remain a fairly sharp trough/wave axis. There is potential for redevelopment over the next day or two while they continue to track westward, as upper-level winds (shear) will be somewhat conducive. However, dry air and the fast forward speed will continue to work against reorganization.
By Thursday/Friday, upper-level winds will become highly unfavorable (see figure 2) — meaning redevelopment will become very, very unlikely. Also, if Kirk’s remnants do reorganize into a TC, upper-level winds would result in dissipation.
The 00z ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET all predicted redevelopment of Kirk between today and tomorrow.
Per the 8 AM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the remnants of Kirk a 60% chance of developing over both the next 2 – 5 days, respectively.
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