The remnants of Kirk were able to develop a closed center overnight per another ASCAT pass — meaning we now have Tropical Storm Kirk (again).
At the 5 AM EDT/AST advisory, Kirk was moving west at 18 mph with 40 mph winds a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars.
Analysis: Kirk has slowed, albeit slightly. Satellite imagery this morning showed that Kirk has an area of concentrated, deep convection over the center (see figure 1).
Track: Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the track of Kirk. High pressure will keep Kirk on a west to west-northwest path through the end of the week, passing through the Lesser Antilles sometime Thursday night. Kirk will emerge in the east Caribbean Friday.
By this weekend, a more westward movement should commence, with what is left of Kirk moving into the central/west Caribbean.
Intensity: There is a window for some slight intensification over the next 36 – 48 hours. Shear remains low and dry air seems to have abated some. However, the SHIPS model indicates that shear will increase markedly once Kirk nears/moves into the east Caribbean Sea; this will result in dissipation.
Note: Kirk is unlikely to pose a threat to the United States.
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