Tropical Update: West Caribbean Development Possible in 8

Figure 1. 00z EPS predicted probability of a tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength forming in the 144 – 192 hour time frame | Credit: weathermodels.com/weather.us

We mentioned back on the 17th that conditions in the Caribbean/Gulf would favor an increase in tropical activity. Long-range model guidance is now picking up on this.

The ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET are all in agreement on a broad area of low pressure to forming in the SW Caribbean and lifting north into the NW Caribbean in about 8 – 10 days. There is support from the euro ensembles (EPS) and GFS ensembles (GEFS). The 00z EPS indicated a 35 – 40% chance of a tropical depression forming in the NW Caribbean in the 6 – 8 day time frame (see figure 1).

Considering the decent model agreement, it is likely that we will see a broad area of low pressure develop late next week in the Caribbean. However, it is too early to say if it will consolidate into a tropical cyclone. The potential is certainly there, though.

Stay tuned.

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