A surface low is going to develop along the western Gulf Coast in association with a shortwave tomorrow. From there, the low will track generally east, along the northern Gulf Coast, through Saturday.
Excessive rainfall is likely, and there will be a low-end severe weather threat. The latter is going to be the primary concern, though.
Heavy rain/flash flood threat:
Very moist air is going to be pulled northward, meaning very heavy rain will be likely from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
As of now, the axis of heavier precipitation is expected to set up from from SE Texas into NW Louisiana. The latest QPF from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is calling for accumulations of 3 – 5″ (see figure 3). But locally higher amounts will certainly be possible.
In their excessive rainfall outlook, the WPC has hatched a “moderate” risk area for part of Southeast Texas; this is where the highest probability of flash flooding will be. Flash Flood Watches have also been issued (see figure 1).
Severe threat:
Instability is going to be marginal at best. However, there will be sufficient shear.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the “marginal” risk area for the lower/mid Texas Gulf Coast tomorrow.
A risk area has not been defined for Saturday. Despite this, there is potential for a few isolated strong/severe storms, and a risk area might be added in future outlooks.
Damaging winds and a few brief spin-ups (tornadoes) will be possible.
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