Major Arctic Outbreak Expected Next Week

A lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex is going to drop into lower 48 next week.

Both the GFS and ECMWF, along with their respective ensemble packages, are in agreement on a piece of the vortex dipping into the Great Lakes by Tuesday (see figure 1). This is going to result in a major outbreak of arctic air for the eastern two-thirds of the country mid to late next week.

How cold?

Extreme, record breaking cold is in store for the Midwest and Northeast.

It’s still coming — next week … Brutal Arctic cold that some call “Barney” b/c of the color on this map.

Surface temperatures would be 35°-55°F below normal for much of the Midwest including Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit — actual temperatures way below zero. pic.twitter.com/LI5GLZWVeA

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 23, 2019

As for the Gulf Coast States, the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS have temperatures as much as 10 – 12 degrees (C) below-average reaching the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, the ECMWF is showing 20s for lows Tuesday night/Wednesday from Baton Rouge to Florida Panhandle.

Based on this, it is likely that we are going to be dealing with the coldest air of the winter season next week (yes, colder than what we had this past weekend).

Snow?

Global models are in agreement on the idea of some snow for north Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Tuesday as the lead arctic front tracks across the South.

This is certainly possible. However, the chance of any frozen precipitation is currently very LOW  south of I-20.

Also, even if any snow and/or mixing was looking probable for areas closer to the Gulf Coast, it would be way too early to speculate on potential impacts or accumulation.

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