We continue to monitor the threat for severe weather tomorrow. Overall, there have been no major changes.
Saturday
A band of storms is expected to develop from east Texas into Arkansas during the morning hours (see figure 1). This activity should then shift northeast through the day into the evening as a cold front surges east.
Some discrete cells are likely to form ahead of the main band. Late tomorrow evening going into the overnight, the southern tail of the main line should begin break up.
Placement:
The greatest risk for severe weather will be in the level 3 (out of 5) “enhanced” risk area; this has been trimmed since yesterday.
Meanwhile, the risk still looks more isolated/localized in the level 1 and 2 risk areas.
Threats:
Damaging winds continue to be the main concern, with a tornado threat mainly posed by any discrete storms.
Sunday
A few strong storms, mainly capable of damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado, will be possible overnight Saturday/very early Sunday morning from far Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as a cold front continues east.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a level 1 (out of 5) “marginal” risk area. But for the most part, the severe weather threat will be low, as the better dynamics will have shifted north.
Dry Air
Behind the cold front, a cool and much drier air mass will push in. This will allow for a respite in the warm and muggy pattern that has been in place.
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