Looking ahead to this weekend, model guidance is projecting an organized line of storms to develop ahead of a strong arctic front Sunday, over the lower Mississippi Valley. During the day, the line will sweep east in tandem with the front.
The aforementioned front will be associated with the area of low pressure we talked about in yesterday’s update. Both will work to bring warm, modified Gulf air north, into the warm sector.
15% severe risk area for Sunday. pic.twitter.com/yKlemmBhx4
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) February 28, 2019
In regard to severe parameters, at least moderate CAPE (instability) values are expected. This means there will be some potential for strong/severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already defined a 15% risk area.
This setup will be different from last weekend. The main convective mode should be linear, meaning the primary threat is likely to be damaging winds. However, that does not mean other severe threats (hail and tornadoes) won’t be possible. With that said, it is still a bit too early to get specific.
Also, it should be noted that the risk area defined by the SPC is subject to change.
We will be able to get more in depth tomorrow and Saturday as the situation becomes clearer and the time frame get smaller.
Much colder air will move in Sunday into Monday behind a strong arctic front; likely to stick around for much of next week. pic.twitter.com/NbdQ2F74f8
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) February 28, 2019
Much colder air is still anticipated in the wake of the front. And next week should feature well below-average temperatures across much of the nation.
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