A negatively tilted trough is going to lift out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Saturday into Saturday night. At the same time, a deepening low is expected to bring a trailing front east. Warm and humid Gulf air will inevitably get transported north ahead of the front, destabilizing the atmosphere.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible. For those keeping count, this would be the third week in a row with a severe threat.
Analog-based severe guidance for Saturday. pic.twitter.com/5mOoIFE6xo
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) March 5, 2019
CIPS severe-based analog guidance is indicating an overall 15 – 30% chance of severe weather Saturday.
Additionally, model guidance is advertising strong dynamics with this system. A 50 – 70 kt low-level jet (LLJ) and moderate levels of CAPE (instability) are predicted (see figure 1). However, the northern extent of the higher CAPE values is uncertain.
Another severe threat looking likely for parts of the South Saturday. pic.twitter.com/uAIykURqus
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) March 5, 2019
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already defined a large 15% (slight) risk area; adjustments are likely as we get closer to Saturday. At this time, all modes of severe weather appear to be on the table.
Looking at Sunday, it is possible that the severe threat could carry over into the Southeast.
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