A vigorous storm system is still expected to eject out of the Plains over the weekend. Warm, humid air inland will be advected inland ahead of a trailing front, which will destablize the atmosphere. The result will be a renewed risk for severe thunderstorm activity to Dixie Alley and the Southeast.
Convection will likely develop in east Texas by early Saturday afternoon ahead of a front, possibly congealing into a squall line. Then, from Saturday afternoon into the early Sunday, this activity should spread into the Southeast.
Model guidance continues to depict a highly sheared warm sector Saturday afternoon and evening. At least moderate surface-based CAPE values of ~ 500 – 1500 j/kg are still being predicted as well. However, how far inland the higher values get is still uncertain.
Because of the uncertainty in regard to CAPE, and with some other parameters, it is too early to determine the placement of the highest risk for severe storms.
Severe storms still looking possible this weekend… northern extent of the threat remains uncertain. pic.twitter.com/MD10qyEAjA
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) March 6, 2019
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the broad 15% risk zone, and added a risk area for Sunday. At this time, it does look like the greatest severe potential could stay north of I-10 during the day Saturday, and west/north of I-65/85 Saturday night, with a lower risk for the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina’s Sunday.
With respect to impacts on Saturday, we can now say that damaging winds and tornadoes now appear to be the primary threats.
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