A shortwave and surface low are expected to track from the Plains Thursday to the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. Ahead of these features, moisture will be transported north, ultimately aiding in the development of widespread showers/thunderstorms (see figure 1).
High CAPE (instability) and bulk shear values are being advertised by model guidance. Considering this, we will probably be looking at a severe threat for the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. The threat could also shift into the Southeast Friday.
However, details (magnitude, exact timing, placement, etc.) are uncertain at this juncture.
Threat for severe weather returns late week. The SPC has outlined a 15% risk area. pic.twitter.com/pOdrIQaBpI
— Gulf Coast Storm Center (@GCSCWX) March 31, 2019
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a 15% (slight) risk area for Thursday. Although, this far out, it is highly subject to change.
