The surface trough being watched for possible tropical/subtropical development, which was traversing the Bahamas yesterday, is now located over south Florida.
Analysis
Looking at satellite imagery, the surface trough is still producing some limited convective activity. But wind shear continues to hinder development. In fact, the latest CIMSS shear analysis shows that shear has increased since yesterday.
There is also land interaction now, which is also working against development.
Additionally, surface observations indicate that this is still just a trough and not a well defined area of low pressure.
Overall, this area of interest (AOI) remains disorganized.
Model Guidance
Out of the the three best reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS), none predicted any tropical/subtropical development.
The EPS have also backed off of development, showing only a 5 – 10% chance of at least a tropical depression forming within the next 72 hours. That is down from 40 – 45% yesterday.
Development Potential
A pocket of lighter shear is still expected off of the Southeast U.S. coast late tomorrow going into this weekend. This could allow for some slow tropical/subtropical development.
That being said, the chance of this entity developing still appear slim (although not zero).
In their latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center lowered the 5-day development chance to 10%. At the same time, they introduced a 2-day development chance of 10% as well.
Potential Track and Intensity
Track: If we were to see development of either a tropical/subtropical depression or storm, a frontal system would cause a northeast curve out to sea.
Intensity: Anything that forms would be unlikely to strengthen too much.
Impacts
There has been no change with impacts. Locally heavy rain is likely for the peninsula of Florida today and tomorrow, with hazardous marine conditions over the weekend.
Rough surf and rip currents could also be an issue from the east coast of Florida to the Carolina’s.
