Thunderstorms are ongoing across west Louisiana this morning.
This activity is mostly sub-severe as of now. However, it is moving east, and will eventually encounter a more unstable atmosphere late this morning and this afternoon.
There is still a potential for some severe storms, with the Storm Prediction Center having maintained a level 2 out of 5 (slight) risk.
Based on the latest model guidance, the greatest severe threat will come for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi between ~ 11 AM and 3 PM CDT, and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle between ~ 3 PM and 7 PM CDT.
However, by about 7 – 8 PM, the overall severe threat should start to decrease with diurnal stabilization (decreasing instability).
The primary threats remain damaging/strong wind gusts and hail.
It is worth noting that high resolution guidance, namely the NAM-3km, is also indicating that we could see a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) evolve (see figure 1).
Should this occur, there would be a heightened risk for damaging winds with it on a localized level.
