Severe Storms Possible for Portions of LA, MS, AL and the FL Panhandle Today

Figure 2. NAM simulated radar for 5 PM CDT this evening, showing a possible MCV over southeast Mississippi. Image: College of Du Page
Figure 1. NAM simulated radar for 5 PM CDT this evening, showing a possible MCV over southeast Mississippi. Image: College of Du Page

Thunderstorms are ongoing across west Louisiana this morning.

This activity is mostly sub-severe as of now. However, it is movingĀ  east, and will eventually encounter a more unstable atmosphere late this morning and this afternoon.

There is still a potential for some severe storms, with the Storm Prediction Center having maintained a level 2 out of 5 (slight) risk.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today. Image: NOAA SPC

Based on the latest model guidance, the greatest severe threat will come for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi between ~ 11 AM and 3 PM CDT, and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle between ~ 3 PM and 7 PM CDT.

However, by about 7 – 8 PM, the overall severe threat should start to decrease with diurnal stabilization (decreasing instability).

The primary threats remain damaging/strong wind gusts and hail.

It is worth noting that high resolution guidance, namely the NAM-3km, is also indicating that we could see a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) evolve (see figure 1).

Should this occur, there would be a heightened risk for damaging winds with it on a localized level.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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