An area of disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas, which is associated with a surface trough, has been designated invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center.
Analysis
40 kts of westerly wind shear is hindering development at this time. However, wind shear could become more favorable for development tomorrow.
Chance of development
This could allow for development of a short-lived tropical or subtropical depression or storm while 90L tracks generally north/northeast toward Bermuda.
Of the three reliable models used for predicting tropical cyclone formation (ECMWF, UKMET and GFS), only the GFS was predicting development as of the 00z model cycle.
The National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 30% over the next 2 days and 40% over the next 5 days in their latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook.
No threat to the U.S.
Regardless of development, 90L does not pose a threat to the United States or Gulf Coast, as it will get absorbed by an upper-level trough late Tuesday which will pull it out to sea.
