It is looking like we could see some tropical “mischief” in the southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Model guidance
Since yesterday, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS have all been hinting at tropical development in the Bay of Campeche between tomorrow and Monday/Tuesday.
As of today’s 12z model cycle, both the GFS and ECMWF predicted formation of a tropical depression or storm by Monday.
There is also ensemble support for development. In fact, there is strong support from the EPS (ECMWF ensembles), which are showing a 90% chance of of at least a tropical depression forming within the next three days as of the 00z model cycle.
Analysis
Based on the latest wind shear analysis from CIMSS, wind shear is very favorable for tropical development in the southwest Gulf. A Central American Gyre (CAG) is also present, which can sometimes lead to tropical development.
Furthermore, the curved coastline of the Bay of Campeche has been known to aid in the development of tropical cyclones.
The “seed” for this potential development appears to be a broad area of low pressure currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Development potential
Given that shear is already low, and that a CAG is present, there is some credence to what the models are showing. This means that tropical development in the southwest Gulf will be something to watch for this weekend.
That being said, development is not a certainty.
An alternate outcome is that high pressure could suppress any disturbance far enough south to prevent development by keeping it over land.
Additionally, per the most recent model guidance, any disturbance will have a limited amount of time over water, meaning less time for organization.
In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 30% over the next 5 days (see figure 1).
Likely not a concern for the U.S. Gulf Coast
Should a system develop, it will probably be short-lived end up getting shoved into Mexico.
