The broad area of low pressure over that was over the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday is now over the Bay of Campeche, and has been tagged Invest 91L.
Analysis
Wind shear remains very conducive for development, with values only in the 5 – 10 kt range per the latest CIMSS analysis.
Looking at satellite imagery, there is some robust convective activity this morning. However, it is disorganized.
Model guidance
As of the 00z model cycle, all three reliable models used for predicting tropical development (ECMWF, UKMET and GFS) were predicting development of Invest 91L.
Taking a look at each individual model:
The ECMWF is predicting development of a tropical depression/storm by late tomorrow, with landfall near Tampico, Mexico Tuesday.
The GFS is predicting development of a tropical depression/storm by tomorrow morning, with landfall also near Tampico Tuesday.
The UKMET is predicting development of a tropical depression late tomorrow, with landfall Tuesday in the southern half of the state of Veracruz, Mexico.
Looking at the latest ensemble guidance:
The EPS continues to strongly support development. Most EPS members do move 91L inland into eastern Mexico early next week.
However, there are a few that show a bend north and then northwest up the western Gulf Coast; this will be something to watch over the next day or two.
Additionally, there is now strong support for development from the GEFS and GEPS.
Development potential
Considering that shear is very low, and the model consensus for development, there is a decent chance that Invest 91L could develop.
The only hindrance will be possible land interaction/proximity to land. Limited time over water could also be an issue.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 40% over the next 2 days and 50% over the next 5 days, respectively.
Potential track and intensity
Track: 91L will track generally west over the next several days, and move inland over Mexico by Tuesday.
That being said, there is an outside chance an upper-level trough could cause a more poleward track toward the western Gulf Coast next week, as some EPS members show.
Intensity: If 91L develops, it shouldn’t become too strong, as it is expected to have limited time over water.
No direct impacts expected for U.S. Gulf Coast
While no direct impacts are expected at this time, a more poleward track could change this.
