The chance of Invest 91L developing is decreasing.
Analysis
Convection once again developed and increased in coverage overnight after waning yesterday afternoon/evening. However, there is still no evidence of a well-defined center of circulation.
Model guidance
None of the model guidance is predicting development of 91L as of the 00z model cycle.
Additionally, ensemble support for development has decreased substantially.
Development potential
Invest 91L still has the remainder of today to develop. However, by tonight there will be an uptick in shear.
Furthermore, it now seems Invest 91L will track into northeast Mexico tonight, meaning a limited amount of time left over water.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center put the chance of development at 40% over both the next 2 and 5 days; down from 60% at this time yesterday.
Track and intensity
Track: Invest 91L will make landfall in northeast Mexico tonight. Tomorrow, 91L will turn north and then northeast, eventually getting absorbed in an upper-level low.
Intensity: If 91L somehow pulls off development today, it would likely only briefly attain tropical depression status due to increasing shear and land interaction with Mexico.
Impacts
Regardless of development, Invest 91L combined with the aforementioned upper-level low will bring heavy rain to Southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still forecasting a general 2 – 3″ of rain now through Thursday, with localized amounts up to and in excess of 5″.
This will set the stage for a flood threat given the already waterlogged soil and swollen rivers.
The WPC has outlined a moderate risk area in their excessive rainfall outlook for tomorrow (see figure 1).
By Friday, heavy rain will shift into the Southeast, including Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
