The Atlantic Basin is quiet in terms of tropical activity on this Independence Day. However, change could be in store next week.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico mid to late next week.
The most recent 12z run of the GFS predicted a tropical storm to develop in the eastern Gulf next Thursday.
The ECMWF didn’t show outright development in its 00z run, but did forecast an area of low pressure to form in the eastern Gulf next Wednesday.
Some GFS ensemble (GEFS) and ECMWF ensemble (EPS) members were also hinting at development as of the 00z model cycle.
The catalyst for development appears to be a stalled, decaying front.
In the past, this kind of set up has resulted in tropical development. Tropical Storm Emily (2017) is a recent example.
Now, with all of that said, as things stand now the chance of development is small.
However, this is something to watch over the coming days.
