Invest 92L has moved offshore, and is now located in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
Per the 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, Invest 92L now has a high chance – 70 percent – of developing within the next 2 days.
This is an increase from 50 percent this morning.
Concerning model trend
Over the course of this morning and this afternoon, model guidance has trended stronger with 92L as a whole.
The ECMWF has remained fairly consistent, predicting a category 1 at landfall.
The GFS (see figure 1) has gone from predicting a tropical depression/low end tropical storm at landfall to a category 1 at landfall.
The UKMET is now stronger than both the ECMWF and GFS, predicting 92l to peak as a high end category 2 or category 3. It appears to be an outlier with regard to intensity at this time, though.
The main takeaway here is that model guidance, collectively, has trended toward a stronger storm.
Track
Overall, models appears to be locking on to a Louisiana landfall.
However, there is still ample time for change, and everyone along the northern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of 92L.
Just a trend for now
While models have trended stronger, it doesn’t guarantee a stronger storm. Models could just as easily trend weaker again with the next model cycle.
The same goes for track.
