Invest 92L is located over northern Florida this morning, and will drop down into the Gulf later today or tonight. Development is highly likely.
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
There is now a 50 percent (medium) chance of development over the next 2 days, per the National Hurricane Center as of the 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook.
5-day development odds remain at 80 percent (see figure 1).
They note that “a tropical depression is likely to develop by late Wednesday or Thursday.”
Model Guidance
Our three most reliable model for predicting tropical cyclone genesis – the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS – all continued to develop 92L in the northern Gulf by Thursday.
Track
Model guidance has generally come into better agreement on track since yesterday.
Although, there has also been an overall slight shift east among guidance after a west trend yesterday.
The ECMWF and UKMET both predict landfall in southern Louisiana, near Morgan City.
The GFS disagrees, predicting landfall to occur in southeast Texas Saturday.
Looking at the ensemble guidance, the GEFS and EPS continue to have solutions ranging from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity
Model guidance also continues to diverge on intensity, with a ECMWF/UKMET vs. GFS situation here too.
The latter favor a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, while the former favors a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be mostly favorable for strengthening, so that gives some credence to the ECMWF/UKMET.
However, there are indications that northerly shear could be present, which might keep intensity in check.
With that being said, intensity is much harder to predict than track.
Time over water will also play a part in determining strength.
Impacts
Impacts, and placement of said impacts, are still mostly unknown.
However, heavy rain is a given for someone (see figure 3), along with high seas and rough surf.
With a stronger system, there could be issues with surge and wind.
Texas to the Florida Panhandle should monitor
Uncertainty continues to be high as to how this will all play out. Everyone from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of 92L.
USAF reconnaissance aircraft to investigate
A USAF reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L tomorrow afternoon.
