Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry yesterday morning.
Barry had strengthened to a 50 MPH tropical storm by the 10 PM CDT advisory last night. Intensity has held steady since.
As of the 7 AM CDT advisory, Barry had winds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 998 millibars.
Analysis
Barry is a asymmetric storm. Based on satellite imagery, there is a convective band to the south, with only some outer squalls/bands in the northeast quadrant.
Tropical storm force winds are also displaced to mostly to the east side of the storm, with the strongest winds being found in the southeast quadrant.
This is all a result of northerly shear and a bit of dry air.
Track
Barry is currently moving ever so slowly to the west-northwest. A turn to the northwest should take place later today, followed by a turn to the north.
The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) brings the center of Barry onshore late tonight/early tomorrow morning in the Vermilion Bay area, just west of Morgan City.
After landfall, Barry should continue north, eventually moving into central and northern Louisiana.
The latest Model guidance is inline with the NHC track.
Intensity
While it is still possible Barry becomes a hurricane before landfall, it is looking less likely than it was at this point. In fact, neither the ECMWF or GFS were predicting Barry to become a hurricane as of the 00z model cycle.
The official NHC forecast is for Barry to be a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 MPH at landfall.
However, even with a strong tropical storm, you can get wind gusts up to hurricane force.
Flood threat
Barry is going to bring a significant amount of rain to Louisiana and Mississippi.
The Weather Prediction Center forecasting up 15 – 20 inches of rain (see figure 4) for southeast Louisiana.
Major flash flooding and river flooding is expected, with both storm surge and rain contributing to the former.
Other impacts
In addition to the flood threat, tropical storm force winds can be expected within the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warning areas (see figure 3).
There will also be a storm surge of up to 3 – 6 feet.
Other impacts, which will be felt well to the east of the center, include:
- waterspouts/tornadoes;
- coastal flooding;
- high seas, dangerous surf;
- a high risk for rip currents.
Timing
Tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along coastal Louisiana by this afternoon and evening (see figure 1).
Conditions will get progressively worse going into the overnight hours.
