Back this spring, it appeared that El Niño would stick around through the summer, and possibly into fall. This is no longer the case, however.
ENSO-neutral likely
The weak El Niño present in the Pacific is now expected to fade as we head into the peak of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (August, September and October).
In their July ENSO diagnostic discussion, the Climate Prediction Center stated that neutral conditions are now expected for Northern Hemisphere fall.
“A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.”
Over the past month, sea surface temperatures have cooled across the equatorial Pacific, and subsurface warmth has also decreased, indicating that El Niño is weakening.
Additionally, the latest NMME model plume for ENSO shows a transition to ENSO-neutral by next month.
What does this mean for the rest of hurricane season?
This is a rather significant development with regard to the remainder of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Many seasonal hurricane forecasts, such as the CSU forecast, were heavily based on the continuation of El Niño.
With a transition to ENSO-neutral now likely within the next month or two, we could be looking at a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic than originally anticipated.
