A surface trough just east of the Bahamas has been designated Invest 94L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Low chance of development
Wind shear is generally low. However, there is quite a bit of dry air present at the low and mid levels.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing over the next two days, and a 20% chance over the next five days (see figure 1).
Model guidance
As of the 00z model cycle, of the top three models used for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (ECMWF, GFS and UKMET), none predicted development of 94L.
Track
Invest 94L will remain on a general west to west-northwest heading through tomorrow/Tuesday, before getting pulled north and then northeast by a frontal system/upper trough.
Squally weather likely for Florida
Regardless of development, 94L will likely bring some squally weather to parts of south and central Florida early this week.
