Invest 94L has tracked into the Bahamas, and is now moving just north of west.
Analysis
Convection has increased this morning. This increase can probably be attributed to less dry air at the mid level of the atmosphere.
Despite the increase in convection, Invest 94L is still not really all that organized.
There is no sign of a closed low-level center of circulation, meaning Invest 94L is still just a trough of low pressure.
Model guidance
The ECMWF, GFS and UKMET were predicting no development as of the 00z model cycle.
Chance of development
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 30 percent over both the next two and five days.
Overall, it is unlikely that Invest 94L will become a tropical cyclone.
However, there still has a day or two for Invest 94L to try and organize, as conditions are, and will continue to be, marginally conducive (low shear but still some dry air).
With that being said, shear will begin to increase late tomorrow/Wednesday.
Track
A turn to the northwest is expected later today. Tomorrow, a turn to the north should take place, followed by a curve out to sea due to an approaching front.
Intensity
If Invest 94L manages to beat the odds and develop, we would be looking at a tropical storm at most.
Impacts
Invest 94L will bring squally weather to parts of Florida later today and tomorrow.
