Tropical development is still possible in the northern Gulf.
An area of low pressure is expected to form along a stalled front tonight.
Over the course of tomorrow and Friday, this area of low pressure could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics.
Environmental conditions won’t be ideal, but could support gradual development.
Looking at the latest model guidance, both the UKMET and GFS are now predicting development of a tropical depression as of the 00z model cycle.
However, the ECMWF did not predict development in its 00z run.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 20 percent over the next 2 – 5 days.
Should a tropical or subtropical cyclone form, current indications are it would track off to either the north, northeast or east-northeast.
Also, should a tropical or subtropical cyclone develop, appreciable strengthening would be unlikely.
