The tropics are beginning to shows signs of “waking up” in the Atlantic.
While there are is not a threat for immediate development, there are two tropical waves worth monitoring this week (see figure 1). The first wave is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles. The second is still over Africa.
First wave
Development is being hampered by a strong ribbon of westerly wind shear at the moment.
However, this wave will track into the Bahamas/Southwest Atlantic by Wednesday/Thursday, where upper-level winds (wind shear) could be more conducive for development.
Taking a look at the latest model guidance, there is some support for development from the ECMWF, EPS (ECMWF ensembles) and GEFS (GFS ensembles).
The National Hurricane Center has yet to mention this wave.
Second wave
As mentioned above, this wave is still over Africa. It will hit water later today/tomorrow. Immediate development will be unlikely.
However, there is some support for development from the ECMWF and EPS (see figure 2) late this week as it tracks west across the Main Development Region.
There are indications that it will possibly end up near the Bahamas Atlantic by mid to late next week. However, considering we are talking 10 to 12 days out, this is far from certain.
Just as with the wave passing through the Lesser Antilles, the National Hurricane Center has not mentioned this wave in their tropical weather outlook yet.
No immediate concerns
Neither of these waves are an immediate concern. But they will certainly bear watching as the week progresses.
