Invest 95L is passing across the Greater Antilles this evening.
All-in-all, development is now looking unlikely.
Both wind shear and land interaction is inhibiting development, as expected. Model support has also decreased markedly.
With that being said, Invest 95l can’t be written off just yet.
It is possible environmental conditions could be a little more favorable in the southwest Atlantic late this week (see figure 1).
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave Invest 95L a 10 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.
Tropical Wave
The second tropical wave we mentioned Sunday is now being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center (see figure 1).
Immediate development is not expected. However, once past roughly 40 degrees west, development could become a real possibility.
Model support is strong. As of the latest runs, the ECMWF, GFS (see figure 2) and UKMET all predicted a tropical depression to form over the weekend.
There is also a strong signal for development from the various ensemble guidance.
In their 8 PM EDT TWO, the NHC gave this wave a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
While this is not a concern for the continental U.S. at the moment, it could be an issue for the Lesser and Antilles this weekend/early next week.
