The tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic is now Invest 96L.
Model guidance
Model guidance is still in agreement on a tropical depression forming east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday.
Ensemble support also remains somewhat strong. However, as of the 12z model cycle, the ECMWF ensembles were indicating a 50 to 60 percent chance of a tropical depression forming; down from the 12z run yesterday.
Development potential
It is likely that Invest 96L will become at least a tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles this weekend.
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center put the chance of development at a high 70 percent over the next 5 days.
Uncertainty
While there is a high chance Invest 96L will become a tropical cyclone, there is now some uncertainty.
The GFS and ECMWF and their respective ensemble systems are indicating that shear will increase early next week in their latest runs – a big change from yesterday. Meanwhile, the SHIPS intensity guidance does not predict an increase in shear.
If the increase in shear materializes as the ECMWF and GFS suggest, it could cause any tropical cyclone to weaken/dissipate, and result in no development if a tropical cyclone doesn’t form over the weekend.
Northeast Caribbean should monitor
The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Invest 96L closely. If a tropical cyclone does form, impacts will be possible early next week.
Not a threat to the CONUS
At this time, there is still no reason to believe that Invest 96L will be a concern for the mainland United States (CONUS).
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that a trough of low pressure will be in place to steer any storm moving into the southwest Atlantic/Bahamas next week out to sea.
