Development of Invest 96L is now looking less likely.
Analysis
Invest 96L is disorganized. This is evidenced by the lack of any deep convective activity — which can be attributed to a very dry, stable saharan air layer — and the elongation of low-level vorticity (“spin”) from the southwest to northeast.
Model guidance
The latest run of the ECMWF had Invest 96L briefly spin up into a tropical depression early Monday.
However, both the GFS and UKMET were no longer predicting development as of the 12z model cycle.
Not a write-off yet
There is still a window for Invest 96L to briefly spin up into a tropical cyclone this weekend.
But given the decrease in model support and current lack of organization, the chance of this happening is less than what it was yesterday.
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center dropped the chance of development to 40 percent within the next 5 days.
Increase in wind shear expected early next week
It is now apparent that increase in wind shear being predicted by the GFS and ECMWF early next week, which was discussed yesterday, will materialize.
So if Invest 96L doesn’t develop this weekend, it probably won’t do so at all.
Also, if Invest 96L does manage to become a tropical cyclone, the increase in shear would probably cause weakening/dissipation.
Northeast Caribbean should still monitor 96L
The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should still keep an eye on Invest 96L, just in case. Impacts, such as gusty winds and heavy rain, will be possible next Tuesday and Wednesday regardless of development.
Not a CONUS threat
There continues to be no reason to believe that Invest 96L will be a concern for the mainland United States (CONUS).
