The Atlantic has quickly gone from being quiet to quite active overnight.
This is evidenced by the fact that there are now two active systems to track: newly formed Tropical Storm Chantal and an area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas.
Chantal
Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the open North Atlantic last night.
Chantal doesn’t pose a threat to land and is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Friday, and remnant low by early Sunday.
Disturbed weather in Bahamas
There is potential for an area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas (see figure 3) to develop later this week/this weekend near the Southeast U.S. coast (see figure 1).
As of the 00z model cycle, each of the top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis — the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS — predicted formation of a tropical cyclone (TC) from this system by this weekend/early next week.
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of development at 20 percent over the next five days.
If a TC does form, it is too early to say where it might track or how strong it might become. However, while not set in stone, current indications are that should a TC develop, it would stay clear of the Gulf of Mexico.
