Invest 98L, a weak area of low pressure and disorganized convective activity just east of the upper Florida Keys, has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next week.
Invest 98L
Invest 98L will move inland over Florida later today, preventing immediate development. However, by tomorrow/Sunday, Invest 98L will emerge back out over the Atlantic.
Once back out over the Atlantic, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development.
As of the 00z model cycle, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS all predicted development of Invest 98L by early next week. Support from the EPS (see figure 2) and GEFS was also strong.
All things considered, Invest 98L is likely to become a tropical cyclone (TC) this weekend or early next week.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the chance of development at 40 percent (medium) over the next 2 days and 70 percent (high) over the next 5 days.
Any TC is still likely to take a track parallel to the East Coast – staying just offshore (see figure 3).
With that said, interests along the East Coast should monitor the progress of Invest 98L.
Invest 99L
In addition to Invest 98L, there is a new invest area to watch: Invest 99L, located way out in the far East Atlantic (see figure 1).
The GFS and GEFS have been consistently predicting TC genesis from Invest 99L for the past few days (see figure 4).
Now the ECMWF and EPS are beginning to pick up on development, too.
There is some dry air just to the north. However, overall, it does appear that there is a chance of Invest 99L to develop over the coming days while it tracks generally to the west.
The NHC put the chance of development at 10 percent over the next 2 days and 20 percent over the next 5 days.
Should Invest 99L manage to develop, it is too early to speculate on potential track/intensity.
