Yesterday evening, a USAF hurricane hunter aircraft found Dorian a bit weaker than initially thought, measuring maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Overnight, intensity has held steady.
8 AM AST advisory info
As of the 8 AM AST advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds were still 50 mph, with a pressure of 1005 millibars. Movement was west-northwest at 13 mph.
Analysis
Some very deep convection has been pulsing this morning.
However, a USAF hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone this morning indicates that Dorian isn’t all that organized, having found an ill defined, somewhat broad center.
Track
Model guidance is still in very good agreement with regard to track.
Dorian will turn to the northwest later today/tomorrow, and pass very near/over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico tomorrow/early Thursday, and make it to Bahamas by Friday.
This weekend, high pressure should build back in, forcing a bend back to the west-northwest/west.
Intensity
Dorian is now forecast to stay below hurricane strength while passing through the east Caribbean.
Some weakening continues to be anticipated near Hispaniola/Puerto Rico, with re-intensification in the Bahamas.
The intensity forecast is still highly uncertain, though. At present, there are a range of different scenarios that could unfold:
- Gradual intensification over the next day or two. Some weakening Thursday. re-intensification in the Bahamas late this week/this weekend.
- Weakening and/or dissipation Thursday. Regeneration in the Bahamas late this week/this weekend.
- Dissipation sometime over the next day or two. Possible regeneration in the Bahamas late this week/this weekend.
It should be noted the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center is in favor of the first scenario.
Threat to Southeast U.S. increasing
The potential for Dorian to impact the Southeast (including the Gulf Coast) this weekend/early next week has increased. However, there is too much unknown at this juncture to confidently say more than that.
