Dorian quickly got better organized this morning, becoming the second hurricane of 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Dorian achieving hurricane status earlier than anticipated can likely be attributed to a center reformation yesterday, which resulted in a track farther to the north and east, allowing for no interaction with Hispaniola or Puerto Rico.
5 PM AST advisory info
As of 5 PM AST, Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars and was tracking northwest at 14 mph.
Track
Dorian will continue northwest through Friday, followed by a bend back to the west-northwest and/or west as a high pressure builds, blocking an escape out to sea.
As of now, landfall along Florida’s east coast is looking likely sometime Sunday/Monday per the latest model guidance.
Beyond Sunday/Monday, the ECMWF and most ECMWF ensembles (see figure 2) and GFS ensembles predict that Dorian will cross into the Gulf of Mexico.
With all of that being said, the track beyond Saturday is uncertain, and everyone from North Carolina to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of Dorian.
Intensity
With low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and an increasingly more moist environment, Dorian should continue to intensify through Sunday.
The official NHC forecast has Dorian becoming a category 2 hurricane by Saturday, and a major, category 3 hurricane Sunday on approach to Florida.
However, it is worth noting that Dorian could undergo rapid intensification, meaning the cyclone could strengthen quicker, and become stronger, than currently forecast.
