After a period of strengthening yesterday, it appears Dorian has halted intensification for the time being.
5 AM AST advisory info
As of the 5 AM AST advisory, Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, a pressure of 991 millibars and was moving northwest at 13 mph.
Track
There has been no change in thinking in with regard to track.
Dorian is still expected to continue northwest through early tomorrow. A ridge will then nose in, forcing a turn to the west-northwest/west.
Landfall somewhere along Florida’s east coast continues to look likely sometime Sunday/Monday.
After landfall, where Dorian will go has yet to be determined.
Yesterday, model guidance such as the ECMWF (euro), ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles trended toward the ridge staying strong, pushing Dorian into the eastern Gulf.
However, overnight guidance has trended toward the western flank of the ridge breaking down a bit after landfall, allowing for a northward turn up the Florida Peninsula.
Overnight model trends are encouraging for the Gulf Coast.
Although, we are still 4 – 5 days out from landfall. Models will likely “windshield wipe” some more over the next day or two, meaning Dorian crossing over into the Gulf is still a real possibility.
Intensity
Just as with track, there hasn’t been any change in the intensity forecast.
Given favorable shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and increasing environmental moisture, Dorian should continue to gain intensity.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Dorian to become a category 3 hurricane tomorrow, and be just below category 4 strength prior to landfall.
Rapid intensification is still not out of the question.
