Dorian is nearing major hurricane strength this morning.
8 AM AST advisory info
As of the 8 AM AST, Dorian had winds of 110 mph, a minimum central pressure of 972 millibars and was moving northwest at 12 mph.
Track
Dorian will turn to the west-northwest to west either late tonight/early tomorrow.
It now looks like Dorian will slow substantially on approach to the coast. Because of this, landfall, which currently looks to occur in South Florida, will likely be Monday night or early Tuesday rather than Sunday/Monday.
After landfall, Dorian will turn north. However, when this turn takes place is still not known, and will depend on the strength and position of the high that will be responsible for turning Dorian west-northwest/west.
As of now, the forecast is for Dorian to turn north over Florida, riding up the middle of the state.
But there are two other possible outcomes (see figure 2):
- A later turn north, which would allow Dorian to make it back over the Gulf, before turning north into the Florida Panhandle around Wednesday/Thursday;
- An earlier turn north, which would allow for Dorian to ride up, or even parallel, the Florida east coast.
It is also worth noting that after Florida, it is possible Dorian could impact Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina late next week/next weekend.
Intensity
Considering the pace at which Dorian has been intensifying since yesterday evening, Dorian should become a major hurricane sometime today.
Continued intensification is expected up until landfall. And Dorian is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds of 140 mph prior to landfall.
However, it does need to be mentioned that fluctuations in intensity will be possible, and would likely be due to eye wall replacement cycles.
Impacts
Dorian is going to bring significant impacts to Florida early next week.
Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge and heavy rain are all probable, and could be prolonged if Dorian does slow down as currently forecast.
Although, it is too early to determine where exactly the most severe impacts will occur.
