Dorian is still a powerful category 4 hurricane.
8 AM EDT advisory info
As of the 8 AM EDT advisory, Dorian had max sustained winds of 145 mph, a minimum central pressure of 944 millibars and was moving west at 12 mph.
Track
Dorian will continue west-northwest over the next day or two, and will slow down substantially by tomorrow.
Steering currents are likely to weaken/collapse tomorrow/Monday, and should cause Dorian to become nearly stationary, before a turn to the north.
Exactly where Dorian starts to tack north is still uncertain, though. Of the various potential scenarios from yesterday, two remain (see figure 2):
- A track parallel to the Florida east coast, with a possible landfall in either GA, SC or NC, or no landfall at all;
- Landfall in Florida before turning north.
Overall, it appears we could be looking at a track somewhat similar to Hurricane Mathew (2016), which also tracked very close to the Southeast U.S. as a major hurricane.
Intensity
Dorian will continue to intensify on approach to Florida, and a category 5 is well within the realm of possibilities.
The only impediment will be eye wall replacement cycles, which are hard to predict.
However, by day 3 or 4, some weakening is currently expected.
Impacts
Even if Dorian doesn’t make landfall in Florida, impacts will still be likely along much of the Florida east coast on the current forecast track (see figure 4).
Additionally, the threat for both wind and surge has increased for Georgia and South Carolina next week (see figure 4).
