While everyone is focused on Dorian, and rightfully so, it is worth noting that there are two other entities being monitored for tropical development in the Atlantic.
Gulf of Mexico
The first is a broad area of low pressure in the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, as it meanders west.
Taking a look at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS are predicting at least some slight development by Monday.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has put the 5-day formation chance at 30 percent.
Should a tropical cyclone form (TC), it probably won’t become too strong, and would not be a concern for the U.S., with a track into Mexico most likely.
Tropical wave off Africa
The second is a tropical wave off of the coast of Africa, near the Cabo Verde Islands.
It has a 60 percent chance of development over the next 5 days per the NHC (see figure 1).
Model support is also good, with the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS all in agreement on a TC forming early next week.
While development is looking like a real possibility, any TC that does develop should turn fairly quickly out to sea.
