Dorian has weakened a bit today, which was predicted, but remains a powerful category 4.
As of the 9 PM EDT intermediate advisory, Dorian was stationary, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a pressure of 942 millibars.
Forecast update:
* The long awaited north turn will commence tonight/early Tuesday
* We are now fairly confident that Dorian will not make landfall in Florida.
* A pass just 40 – 50 miles offshore is still forecast (see figure 2).
* hurricane-force winds, a storm surge of 2 – 7′ and heavy rain are still expected along a large stretch of Florida’s east coast through Wednesday.
* Tropical-storm-force winds now look most likely to arrive in southeast Florida tomorrow morning instead of tonight.
* A direct hit on Georgia is also looking like it can be ruled out, but not completely just yet.
* A landfall in either South Carolina and North Carolina continues to be very possible.
* Hurricane-force winds are now looking increasingly possible for coastal GA, SC, and NC Wednesday through Friday, and a hurricane watch has been issued for the coastal GA and SC (see figure 3).
* Storm surge and heavy rain is also still anticipated to impact GA, SC, and NC mid/late week.
* Regardless of landfall, hurricane-force winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be likely to occur in coastal GA, SC, and NC.
* Dorian will gradually weaken over the next two days, with a more notable/quicker decrease in intensity by Thursday/Friday.
